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Post by faninsouthbend on Feb 28, 2022 15:15:43 GMT -5
Still gotta win three more games, but revisit the post Frankiemeatballs started and I couldn't find it. Thought it might be a fun place to keep things updated.
Current Bracketology - Number shows current NET Rankings
2/27 Jerry Palm CBS - Cleveland State 16 (play-in game) 175 - Palm has them as the second worst team in the bracket - though based on NET, RPI and SOS I'm not understanding why, so I'm just going purely on seeds and not 1-68
16s
Norfolk St (Mid Eastern) 183 - (229 after that) SAFE
Colgate (Patriot) 137 - Navy is 157, (202 after that) UNLIKELY STEAL
PI Texas Southern (SWAC) 203 (next highest is 201) SAFE
PI Bryant (Northeast) 218 - Wagner is 132 and the 2 seed LIKELY UPGRADE
PI Nicholls St (Southland) 193 (next highest is 249 SAFE
15s
LBSU (Big West) 152 - CS Fullerton 156, UC Riverside 163, Hawaii 169 - UNLIKELY STEAL
Montana St (Big Sky) 134 - Weber St 161, Southern Utah 168 - UNLIKELY STEAL
Longwood (Big South) 142 - Winthrop 143, Gardner Webb 162 - UNLIKELY STEAL
Jacksonville St (A-Sun) 138 - Jacksonville 166 - UNLIKELY STEAL
14s (stopping here if one of these teams were to lose, it could affect a shift, going to assume that if a team is good enough to be a 13 another team in their conference is good enough to be a 15 - we'll keep an eye on it I guess)
Vermont (America East) 64 - (235 after that) - POSSIBLE STEAL
Texas St (Sun Belt) 118 - 5 other teams are ahead of CSU UNLIKELY STEAL
Princeton (Ivy) 108 - Yale 149 (Princeton is a game up on Yale, the one hope here was Penn sneaking into the title, but they lost to Dartmouth) NO MOVEMENT
Northern Iowa (MVC) - 97 - This one is interesting. Loyola isn't in Palm's bracket, leaving UNI the only team from the MVC. Lunardi has Loyola as a last four in. So not entirely sure what to do here LIKELY UPGRADE
Keeping in mind that wins move you up. A team currently ahead of the CSU, is unlikely to fall behind AND win their tourney. CSU really needs to have a chance to beat Oakland to do anything for their resume. I don't see a path out of a 16 seed, but maybe into the actual round. Questions as to which one is better.
Two conferences to watch for I guess would be...
Colonial - UNCW is the #1 seed in the tourney, but like 6th in NET
Summit - Anyone but SD St and Oral Roberts would be behind CSU
When Lunardi updates his, I'll try a similar post.
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Mar 5, 2022 20:37:50 GMT -5
Great post. Mine was buried in the regular season standings thread.
Here's the original post:
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Mar 5, 2022 20:42:11 GMT -5
Some things to keep an eye on so far:
Liberty lost to Bellarmine in the A Sun. Jacksonville and Jacksonville St are in a 1 point game right now in the other semi final. I'm not sure who gets the auto bid if Bellarmine wins the tournament, the team they beat in the finals or the regular season champ? Either way, HL fans want Jacksonville to beat Jacksonville State as they're lower in the NET. And if the regular season champ (Liberty) would get the auto bid in the case of a Bellarmine tourney win, then we'd want Jacksonville to win it outright.
Also, Bryant is in the Northeast championship as the regular season champion, but they have a 200+ NET. Wagner is currently playing in the other semi final game and they have the league's best NET at 124. HL fans want Wagner to lose that semi final (currently up 10 in the first half) or lose to Bryant in the championship.
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Mar 5, 2022 21:18:19 GMT -5
Jacksonville (167) did upset Jacksonville St (136).
That makes a Bellarmine (206) vs. Jacksonville (167) final in the A Sun and Bellarmine is ineligible for the NCAA tournament. Jacksonville is 3 spots ahead of CSU with identical records vs. D1 teams, although their win over Jacksonville St would trump any win on our schedule. They’re 0-0 vs. quad 1 and we’re 0-2. If CSU wins out we’d have 1 more win.
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Mar 6, 2022 11:09:02 GMT -5
Today’s SoCon semifinal has one team rated lower than CSU and that’s 18-10 Samford (175). Samford plays Furman (80) and Wofford (106) plays Chattanooga (69).
Today’s Sun Belt semifinal has three teams rated below CSU in 13-10 Georgia State (172), 17-10 Troy (181) and 15-14 Louisiana (186). Georgia State plays Appalachian State (155) and Louisiana plays Troy.
Today’s Patriot League semifinal has two teams rated below CSU in 20-11 Boston U (200) and 12-18 Lehigh (299). Boston U plays Colgate (131) and Lehigh plays Navy (slightly ahead of CSU at 163).
Edit to correct Louisiana advancing over Texas State.
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Post by user1 on Mar 6, 2022 11:25:52 GMT -5
Some things to keep an eye on so far: Liberty lost to Bellarmine in the A Sun. Jacksonville and Jacksonville St are in a 1 point game right now in the other semi final. I'm not sure who gets the auto bid if Bellarmine wins the tournament, the team they beat in the finals or the regular season champ? Either way, HL fans want Jacksonville to beat Jacksonville State as they're lower in the NET. And if the regular season champ (Liberty) would get the auto bid in the case of a Bellarmine tourney win, then we'd want Jacksonville to win it outright. Also, Bryant is in the Northeast championship as the regular season champion, but they have a 200+ NET. Wagner is currently playing in the other semi final game and they have the league's best NET at 124. HL fans want Wagner to lose that semi final (currently up 10 in the first half) or lose to Bryant in the championship. |
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Mar 6, 2022 11:34:22 GMT -5
Some things to keep an eye on so far: Liberty lost to Bellarmine in the A Sun. Jacksonville and Jacksonville St are in a 1 point game right now in the other semi final. I'm not sure who gets the auto bid if Bellarmine wins the tournament, the team they beat in the finals or the regular season champ? Either way, HL fans want Jacksonville to beat Jacksonville State as they're lower in the NET. And if the regular season champ (Liberty) would get the auto bid in the case of a Bellarmine tourney win, then we'd want Jacksonville to win it outright. Also, Bryant is in the Northeast championship as the regular season champion, but they have a 200+ NET. Wagner is currently playing in the other semi final game and they have the league's best NET at 124. HL fans want Wagner to lose that semi final (currently up 10 in the first half) or lose to Bryant in the championship. Although Liberty had the better NET rating, Jacksonville St won the outright regular season championship. I wonder how the committee would treat Jacksonville St if they back in due to an ineligible team winning. Do they get dropped a line due to lack of tournament championship? |
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Mar 7, 2022 4:59:27 GMT -5
Today’s SoCon semifinal has one team rated lower than CSU and that’s 18-10 Samford (175). Samford plays Furman (80) and Wofford (106) plays Chattanooga (69). Today’s Sun Belt semifinal has three teams rated below CSU in 13-10 Georgia State (172), 17-10 Troy (181) and 15-14 Louisiana (186). Georgia State plays Appalachian State (155) and Louisiana plays Troy. Today’s Patriot League semifinal has two teams rated below CSU in 20-11 Boston U (200) and 12-18 Lehigh (299). Boston U plays Colgate (131) and Lehigh plays Navy (slightly ahead of CSU at 163). Not many good results for the HL. The SoCon and the Patriot will have champs rated better than the HL. Only Georgia State and Louisiana advanced, although that means the HL has a chance to overtake the Sun Belt. |
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Mar 7, 2022 5:26:40 GMT -5
CSU is now rated 173 (down 3). Wright State is 203, NKU is 201 and PFW is 224.
Monday’s Colonial semifinal has one team rated below CSU 19-8 in UNC Wilmington (185). They play Charleston (149). Delaware (150) plays Towson (61) in the other game.
Monday’s Summit semifinal has one team rated below CSU in 16-11 South Dakota (202). They play top seed South Dakota St (72). North Dakota St (rated just ahead of CSU at 169) plays Oral Roberts (146) in the other game.
Monday’s Sun Belt championship has Georgia St (172) vs. Louisiana (186).
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Post by faninsouthbend on Mar 7, 2022 11:40:54 GMT -5
CSU is now rated 173 (down 3). Wright State is 203, NKU is 201 and PFW is 224. Monday’s Colonial semifinal has one team rated below CSU 19-8 in UNC Wilmington (185). They play Charleston (149). Delaware (150) plays Towson (61) in the other game. Monday’s Summit semifinal has one team rated below CSU in 16-11 South Dakota (202). They play top seed South Dakota St (72). North Dakota St (rated just ahead of CSU at 169) plays Oral Roberts (146) in the other game. Monday’s Sun Belt championship has Georgia St (172) vs. Louisiana (186). I wish I could understand the math better. I know it's a formula. But it seems so much like a conference with one team that gets a big win will automatically shoot up over others. The SOCON is one where I really don't buy that there are 5 teams better than anyone in the Horizon League. It seems like Chatanooga getting a Q1 win against VCU, carries the entire conference. Obviously Oakland's win against OK State would have done something similar if they had been moderately competent through February. |
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Post by faninsouthbend on Mar 7, 2022 12:01:05 GMT -5
CSU is now rated 173 (down 3). Wright State is 203, NKU is 201 and PFW is 224. Monday’s Sun Belt championship has Georgia St (172) vs. Louisiana (186). I would imagine two wins vs 201 and 203 is more valuable than one win against 186? Don't really know. But like I said in my previous post, the metric doesn't always make sense Sun Belt AQ Texas St was originally a 14. The only teams with Q1 or Q2 wins in that conference were Troy and ULM (ULM finished 5-13 in conference play), yet somehow they had 5 or 6 teams ahead of Oakland and CSU. |
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Post by faninsouthbend on Mar 7, 2022 12:07:27 GMT -5
Few other updates to original post
Longwood (15) is already in
SWAC AQ is now Alcorn St - who would still be behind CSU and already in a play-in 16, so no movement there.
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Mar 7, 2022 12:14:51 GMT -5
Few other updates to original post Longwood (15) is already in SWAC AQ is now Alcorn St - who would still be behind CSU and already in a play-in 16, so no movement there. Interesting that old friend Jayson Gee had no success at Longwood, winning 26% of his games over 5 years and never finishing higher than 8th in the conference, and now their new coach has won 53% and is a conference champ in year 4, going 23-6, 15-1. I like Gee and thought he’d make a good head coach. And after following his teams at Longwood I just thought that was an impossible place to win. Kudos to Griff Aldrich. |
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Post by gbanks on Mar 7, 2022 14:11:50 GMT -5
Below is from Sports Illustrated (last year). For the Vikes it's the Scoring Margin that is an anchor.
The five factors: Team Value Index, Net Efficiency, Winning Percentage, Adjusted Win Percentage and Scoring Margin.
Team Value Index
Team Value Index is an algorithm set up to reward teams who beat other good teams. It's a results-oriented component of NET and only factors in results of games played against Division I opponents.
Team Value Index is based on game results. It factors opponent, location and the winner, which produces a Team Value Index score.
Net Efficiency
Net Efficiency is a calculation of offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency.
The formula for offensive efficiency is set up as follows:
Field goal attempts minus offensive rebounds plus turnovers plus (.475 x free-throw attempts) = total number of possessions
Total points divided by total number of possessions. The number produced represents a team's offensive effiency.
The formula for defensive efficiency is set up as follows:
Opponent's field goal attempts minus opponent's offensive rebounds plus opponent's turnovers plus (.475 x opponent's free-throw attempts) equals total number of opponent's possessions
Opponent's total points is divided by opponent's total number of possessions. The number produced represents a team's defensive effiency.
Offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency equals a team's Net Efficiency.
Winning Percentage
Wins divided by total games played equals a team's winning percentage.
Adjusted Win Percentage
This metric is a weighted value based on location and result.
Road Win: +1.4
Neutral Win: +1.0
Home Win: +0.6
Road Loss: -0.6
Neutral Loss: -1.0
Home Loss: -1.4
Scoring Margin
This value has a point differential capped at 10 points in each game. All overtime games are capped at one point.
Scoring Margin equals team score minus an opponent's score.
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Post by azvike83 on Mar 7, 2022 16:40:30 GMT -5
I think it is BS that a conference champion has to possibly play a play-in game. Those should ALWAYS go to at large selections IMHO.
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Post by ede on Mar 7, 2022 16:50:03 GMT -5
I think it is BS that a conference champion has to possibly play a play-in game. Those should ALWAYS go to at large selections IMHO. They gave CSU in a playin game vs. Bryant. The UIC lost along with Fort Wayne and a few others were bad losses. We could have when 15-1 in league but the guy failed to close out games the should have won. |
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Mar 7, 2022 18:11:35 GMT -5
I think it is BS that a conference champion has to possibly play a play-in game. Those should ALWAYS go to at large selections IMHO. They gave CSU in a playin game vs. Bryant. The UIC lost along with Fort Wayne and a few others were bad losses. We could have when 15-1 in league but the guy failed to close out games the should have won. Imagine our record if we didn’t close out the games against RMU, YSU, WSU, Detroit… |
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Post by faninsouthbend on Mar 10, 2022 14:20:29 GMT -5
I think it is BS that a conference champion has to possibly play a play-in game. Those should ALWAYS go to at large selections IMHO. Are you arguing for 8 at large play-ins? And only 4 16s instead of 6? Using Lunardi Bracketology as of this posting. You would be looking at Last 4 Byes Michigan Rutgers Notre Dame Creighton Last 4 In Wyoming Wake Forest Xavier SMU The 4 play-in 16s would be True 16s, then the two other 16s would move up to 15s, bumping 2 15s up to 14s, and two 14s up to 13s. I think getting into the tourney by winning your conference tournament is benefit enough for a team that is 21-13 and a 4 seed in a terrible conference. |
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Post by gbanks on Mar 13, 2022 21:00:35 GMT -5
Wright State is in the Playoff game vs Bryant in Dayton. They should win that game and advance to the sacrificial alter the next game.
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Post by azvike83 on Mar 13, 2022 21:12:11 GMT -5
I think it is BS that a conference champion has to possibly play a play-in game. Those should ALWAYS go to at large selections IMHO. Are you arguing for 8 at large play-ins? And only 4 16s instead of 6? Using Lunardi Bracketology as of this posting. You would be looking at Last 4 Byes Michigan Rutgers Notre Dame Creighton Last 4 In Wyoming Wake Forest Xavier SMU The 4 play-in 16s would be True 16s, then the two other 16s would move up to 15s, bumping 2 15s up to 14s, and two 14s up to 13s. I think getting into the tourney by winning your conference tournament is benefit enough for a team that is 21-13 and a 4 seed in a terrible conference. ***Just saying that it wasn't too long ago that there were no play in games and if you won your conference, you were in...it is another tool to devalue mid major programs and stack the deck towards the P5 teams |
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Post by gbanks on Mar 14, 2022 9:54:12 GMT -5
I think the Conference determines if the auto bid is awarded to the regular season champs or if conference tournaments are held to determine the auto bid. For example, the IVY League does not hold tournaments and the regular season champs are awarded the auto bid. For the HL, the HLT determines the auto bid. Only when Butler did not win the HLT, the HL had 2 representatives. Under those circumstances, Butler became an "At Large".
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Post by rogobob77 on Mar 14, 2022 11:20:20 GMT -5
I think the Conference determines if the auto bid is awarded to the regular season champs or if conference tournaments are held to determine the auto bid. For example, the IVY League does not hold tournaments and the regular season champs are awarded the auto bid. For the HL, the HLT determines the auto bid. Only when Butler did not win the HLT, the HL had 2 representatives. Under those circumstances, Butler became an "At Large". The Ivy used to award the bid to the regular season champ. That changed a couple years ago. They now have a tournament that leads to the bid, only the top-four teams in the final standings participate. |
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Post by gbanks on Mar 14, 2022 13:04:49 GMT -5
I think the Conference determines if the auto bid is awarded to the regular season champs or if conference tournaments are held to determine the auto bid. For example, the IVY League does not hold tournaments and the regular season champs are awarded the auto bid. For the HL, the HLT determines the auto bid. Only when Butler did not win the HLT, the HL had 2 representatives. Under those circumstances, Butler became an "At Large". The Ivy used to award the bid to the regular season champ. That changed a couple years ago. They now have a tournament that leads to the bid, only the top-four teams in the final standings participate. Stand corrected about the IVY League by the representative from Detroit. The NCCA defers to the conference for the Auto bid. The tournament format always has some luck involved. It's not like teams play best of 7 series in a playoff format to determine the national champ. |
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