Post by Admin on Dec 1, 2022 11:37:47 GMT -5
With Horizon League play starting today, the "Sharp Superfan" is BACK with another year of gambling advice!!!!
Today's slate and picks:
Oakland @ Cleveland State (-4.5, 136.5): Oakland has had a bad start, losing 6 of their first 7 D1 games. 5 of the 6 losses have come versus teams significantly better than CSU. Oakland has struggled most on defense, with them ranking in the bottom 5 in all of D1 in in overall defensive efficiency, opponent effective FG%, and opponent 3 point %. I think Oakland is a very talented team and the quality of competition they have faced has hurt their record and stats so far this year. On the other hand, Cleveland State has won 4 games in a row, all versus teams ranked 295th or worse (per KemPom website). CSU's record and stats feel "inflated" to me, where as Oakland's feel "deflated". I think this is a "get right" game for Oakland, and the Superfan likes TWO PLAYS on this game, Oakland getting 4.5 points, and OVER the 136.5 total points!
Youngstown State @ Northern Kentucky (-1.5, 141.5): Easily the best game of the night in the Horizon League, with both teams in the top 4 in the conference. Youngstown State is 2-2 on the road; NKU 3-1 at home. I don't like a play on the spread here as really no result either way in the game would surprise me. Both teams seem to have poor 3 point defense, however the Superfan doesn't like anything enough on the total either. NO PLAY on this game. Just sit back and enjoy!
Detroit @ Fort Wayne (-4.5, 143.5): Fort Wayne's offense has been surprisingly inconsistent this year, with them being on an "every other" sort of pattern where they score under 59 points one game, then over 74 the next. In away games this year, Detroit has scored 66, 55, and 54 points. To the Superfan, the total seems awfully high in this game, and a play on the UNDER 143.5 total points seems smart.
Robert Morris @ Wright State (-12.5, 142.5): Robert Morris has not won a Division I game yet this year. They average less than 59 points per game in Division I games this year. Wright State, On the other hand, averages just a tick under 80 per game. The Superfan says use the KISS principle on this game: Keep It Simple, Stupid! Wright State to win by MORE than 12.5 is the easy pick here!
Milwaukee (-7.5, 134.5) @ Green Bay: The saying goes, you never trust a man with 2 first names. Green Bay fans aren't liking the direction the program is taking in the third year under Will Ryan. The team is the only program in the Horizon League yet to win a game this year. The donut in the win column hasn't been unlucky either: Green Bay's closest game this year was an 11 point loss at Wisconsin. their average margin of defeat in their 6 losses is almost 21 points. They haven't been bad. They have been shockingly bad. When the game you "hang your hat on" for the season when we are in the month of December is an 11 point loss, you know your team is bad. Go ahead, name me ONE player on Green Bay's team. Dare ya. Sure, anything can happen in a rivalry game like this. Be smart with this one. THE SUPERFAN'S "EASY PLAY OF THE DAY" is Jimmy Lemke's Milwaukee Panthers to win by MORE than 7.5 points!
Today's slate and picks:
Oakland @ Cleveland State (-4.5, 136.5): Oakland has had a bad start, losing 6 of their first 7 D1 games. 5 of the 6 losses have come versus teams significantly better than CSU. Oakland has struggled most on defense, with them ranking in the bottom 5 in all of D1 in in overall defensive efficiency, opponent effective FG%, and opponent 3 point %. I think Oakland is a very talented team and the quality of competition they have faced has hurt their record and stats so far this year. On the other hand, Cleveland State has won 4 games in a row, all versus teams ranked 295th or worse (per KemPom website). CSU's record and stats feel "inflated" to me, where as Oakland's feel "deflated". I think this is a "get right" game for Oakland, and the Superfan likes TWO PLAYS on this game, Oakland getting 4.5 points, and OVER the 136.5 total points!
Youngstown State @ Northern Kentucky (-1.5, 141.5): Easily the best game of the night in the Horizon League, with both teams in the top 4 in the conference. Youngstown State is 2-2 on the road; NKU 3-1 at home. I don't like a play on the spread here as really no result either way in the game would surprise me. Both teams seem to have poor 3 point defense, however the Superfan doesn't like anything enough on the total either. NO PLAY on this game. Just sit back and enjoy!
Detroit @ Fort Wayne (-4.5, 143.5): Fort Wayne's offense has been surprisingly inconsistent this year, with them being on an "every other" sort of pattern where they score under 59 points one game, then over 74 the next. In away games this year, Detroit has scored 66, 55, and 54 points. To the Superfan, the total seems awfully high in this game, and a play on the UNDER 143.5 total points seems smart.
Robert Morris @ Wright State (-12.5, 142.5): Robert Morris has not won a Division I game yet this year. They average less than 59 points per game in Division I games this year. Wright State, On the other hand, averages just a tick under 80 per game. The Superfan says use the KISS principle on this game: Keep It Simple, Stupid! Wright State to win by MORE than 12.5 is the easy pick here!
Milwaukee (-7.5, 134.5) @ Green Bay: The saying goes, you never trust a man with 2 first names. Green Bay fans aren't liking the direction the program is taking in the third year under Will Ryan. The team is the only program in the Horizon League yet to win a game this year. The donut in the win column hasn't been unlucky either: Green Bay's closest game this year was an 11 point loss at Wisconsin. their average margin of defeat in their 6 losses is almost 21 points. They haven't been bad. They have been shockingly bad. When the game you "hang your hat on" for the season when we are in the month of December is an 11 point loss, you know your team is bad. Go ahead, name me ONE player on Green Bay's team. Dare ya. Sure, anything can happen in a rivalry game like this. Be smart with this one. THE SUPERFAN'S "EASY PLAY OF THE DAY" is Jimmy Lemke's Milwaukee Panthers to win by MORE than 7.5 points!