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Post by frankiemeatballs on Feb 12, 2023 15:54:29 GMT -5
Cleveland State needs to win out.
If we win out, Milwaukee beats YSU, and YSU and NKU win their other remaining games, there would be a 4 way tie for first at 15-5. Milwaukee would win in that scenario because they'd be 5-1 vs. CSU/YSU/NKU.
In order for CSU to gain the top seed in the win out scenario, we need Milwaukee to finish a game behind us at 6 losses. In that scenario, CSU, YSU and NKU would all be 2-2 vs. each other, so the tie breaker would move to the next team in the standings, which would be Milwaukee. By winning out; CSU would also have a split with Milwaukee. If Milwaukee beats YSU, we’d win the tie breaker because both NKU and YSU would be 0-2 vs. Mil.
There's also a chance that NKU loses an additional game to either PFW or WSU which would knock them out.
So here's realistically what to root for: CSU wins out Mil beats YSU on Thu Milwaukee loses to Robert Morris or PFW
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Post by henrymuto on Feb 12, 2023 18:37:39 GMT -5
Here is what CSU needs to happen ... Go back in time and not blow games to Oakland and Northern Kentucky.
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Post by ede on Feb 12, 2023 19:31:07 GMT -5
Here is what CSU needs to happen ... Go back in time and not blow games to Oakland and Northern Kentucky. Milwaukee too
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Post by gbanks on Feb 12, 2023 22:50:37 GMT -5
Here is what CSU needs to happen ... Go back in time and not blow games to Oakland and Northern Kentucky. I almost fell out my chair reading this.
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Post by vikesfan on Feb 13, 2023 10:39:30 GMT -5
The Vikings are within 1 game of first place with 4 to play. We are 1 game back from a potential three-peat as regular season HL champs. And, there’s absolutely room to grow. Program is in healthy shape…
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Post by gbanks on Feb 13, 2023 14:24:24 GMT -5
First place would be nice. HLT champion is much better. I can't remember who the Vikes played last year in the NIT (Not In Tournement).
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Feb 13, 2023 16:34:01 GMT -5
First place would be nice. HLT champion is much better. I can't remember who the Vikes played last year in the NIT (Not In Tournement). I agree that winning the tournament is the top goal. But I’ve said before, I believe hanging banners is important as we continue to try to build the program into a consistent winner that attracts recruits, regardless of the coach. Three straight regular season championships makes a statement. Even better if there’s two NCAA banners during the same run.
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Post by gbanks on Feb 13, 2023 16:47:24 GMT -5
First place would be nice. HLT champion is much better. I can't remember who the Vikes played last year in the NIT (Not In Tournement). I agree that winning the tournament is the top goal. But I’ve said before, I believe hanging banners is important as we continue to try to build the program into a consistent winner that attracts recruits, regardless of the coach. Three straight regular season championships makes a statement. Even better if there’s two NCAA banners during the same run. I think any pending recruit would want to join a program going to the dance. That spotlight is a great equalizer. Being the Peewee football champion or equivilent I guess is better than nothing.
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Post by vikesfan on Feb 14, 2023 8:47:28 GMT -5
Rome wasn’t built in a day, regular season championships show a model of success that will put you in position to win the HLT every year. Getting hot in one HLT, making the tournament and then not being back in contention for 5 years does nothing for recruits. But if you sit down with recruits and point to championship banners getting hung every year, they probably feel like “hey this is my best bet in terms of trying to get to the tournament in this league”.
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Post by gbanks on Feb 14, 2023 16:17:09 GMT -5
Rome wasn’t built in a day, regular season championships show a model of success that will put you in position to win the HLT every year. Getting hot in one HLT, making the tournament and then not being back in contention for 5 years does nothing for recruits. But if you sit down with recruits and point to championship banners getting hung every year, they probably feel like “hey this is my best bet in terms of trying to get to the tournament in this league”. Roman Empire and Vikes, ok you got me. That's the problem with hypotheticals. We can all go down this path say its great. Maybe the HL has more weight than I give it. Pointing to the HL banners does it illustrate greatness in the minds of potential Vikings? Going to the NCAAs once every 5 years does not sound great? (I would love to see the Vikes make a trip every 5 years. They have only been there 3 times in how many years?). For a mid major, the 5 year frequency is not bad. However, the point I was making was that of calibration. The HL is not a well known league. Thus, winning a championship is like the tree in the forest effect. Who is looking at the HL (not many), thus if a tree fell ……(google the phrase). The NCAAs is a known and would have more recognition. It’s a known benchmark of achievement.
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Post by vikesfan on Feb 14, 2023 19:03:08 GMT -5
Rome wasn’t built in a day, regular season championships show a model of success that will put you in position to win the HLT every year. Getting hot in one HLT, making the tournament and then not being back in contention for 5 years does nothing for recruits. But if you sit down with recruits and point to championship banners getting hung every year, they probably feel like “hey this is my best bet in terms of trying to get to the tournament in this league”. Roman Empire and Vikes, ok you got me. That's the problem with hypotheticals. We can all go down this path say its great. Maybe the HL has more weight than I give it. Pointing to the HL banners does it illustrate greatness in the minds of potential Vikings? Going to the NCAAs once every 5 years does not sound great? (I would love to see the Vikes make a trip every 5 years. They have only been there 3 times in how many years?). For a mid major, the 5 year frequency is not bad. However, the point I was making was that of calibration. The HL is not a well known league. Thus, winning a championship is like the tree in the forest effect. Who is looking at the HL (not many), thus if a tree fell ……(google the phrase). The NCAAs is a known and would have more recognition. It’s a known benchmark of achievement. Yeah I guess my point is, is we are competing for the same recruits as a lot of MAC and HL teams. When competing for those players, it helps if you have a championship pedigree to fall back on and 3 straight conference tournaments is that. I think you proved my point that we’ve been to the tournament 2x since the 2000s. We don’t have that pedigree, winning the conference gives you a chance to go to the NCAA tournament or the NIT at a minimum. Having that pedigree helps you win recruits over other HL and MAC teams. We aren’t competing for recruits against Big Ten and ACC schools, we’re competing against other HL and MAC schools and the championship pedigree matters.
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Post by gbanks on Feb 14, 2023 19:26:52 GMT -5
Roman Empire and Vikes, ok you got me. That's the problem with hypotheticals. We can all go down this path say its great. Maybe the HL has more weight than I give it. Pointing to the HL banners does it illustrate greatness in the minds of potential Vikings? Going to the NCAAs once every 5 years does not sound great? (I would love to see the Vikes make a trip every 5 years. They have only been there 3 times in how many years?). For a mid major, the 5 year frequency is not bad. However, the point I was making was that of calibration. The HL is not a well known league. Thus, winning a championship is like the tree in the forest effect. Who is looking at the HL (not many), thus if a tree fell ……(google the phrase). The NCAAs is a known and would have more recognition. It’s a known benchmark of achievement. Yeah I guess my point is, is we are competing for the same recruits as a lot of MAC and HL teams. When competing for those players, it helps if you have a championship pedigree to fall back on and 3 straight conference tournaments is that. I think you proved my point that we’ve been to the tournament 2x since the 2000s. We don’t have that pedigree, winning the conference gives you a chance to go to the NCAA tournament or the NIT at a minimum. Having that pedigree helps you win recruits over other HL and MAC teams. We aren’t competing for recruits against Big Ten and ACC schools, we’re competing against other HL and MAC schools and the championship pedigree matters. When reviewing Verbal Commits, the net appears to be much wider than the HL and MAC. Granted those that are flying under the radar perhaps; then again, they are flying under radar (so I don't know). But ok, I'm fine with your points (because it doesn't matter).
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Post by vikesfan on Feb 14, 2023 20:06:29 GMT -5
Yeah I guess my point is, is we are competing for the same recruits as a lot of MAC and HL teams. When competing for those players, it helps if you have a championship pedigree to fall back on and 3 straight conference tournaments is that. I think you proved my point that we’ve been to the tournament 2x since the 2000s. We don’t have that pedigree, winning the conference gives you a chance to go to the NCAA tournament or the NIT at a minimum. Having that pedigree helps you win recruits over other HL and MAC teams. We aren’t competing for recruits against Big Ten and ACC schools, we’re competing against other HL and MAC schools and the championship pedigree matters. When reviewing Verbal Commits, the net appears to be much wider than the HL and MAC. Granted those that are flying under the radar perhaps; then again, they are flying under radar (so I don't know). But ok, I'm fine with your points (because it doesn't matter). There may be a gap between the HL and MAC but they compete for players. Here’s a list of current or former players they had a MAC offer, played or play in the MAC… Seth Millner Anderson Mirambeaux Tae Williams Drew Lowder Dylan Arnett Yahel Hill Deshon Parker Deante Johnson Dibaji Walker Jason Drake
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Post by Admin on Feb 16, 2023 12:19:07 GMT -5
Tomorrow night: CSU's first home game on an ESPN network (with fans allowed to be in the stands) since 2014-2015. I wonder if we will get an appearance from Ryan A or Henry Muto?
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Feb 16, 2023 16:31:08 GMT -5
Tomorrow night: CSU's first home game on an ESPN network (with fans allowed to be in the stands) since 2014-2015. I wonder if we will get an appearance from Ryan A or Henry Muto? I heard Ryan A is still around but I’m not sure if he’ll be there. Personally, it’s hard for me to make the weeknight games. I’ll be in front of a tv right around tip off though.
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Post by henrymuto on Feb 17, 2023 20:57:21 GMT -5
If we didn't blow that game at Oakland which is about as bad a loss as you can have in terms of the game being locked up and blowing it they would be tied for 1st right now.
Add in the Northern Kentucky mistake of fouling too early if they didn't do that maybe they would won that one as well and be all alone in 1st.
Can't say we should won that Northern Kentucky game for sure but at worst should been ok or you wait until under 5 seconds left before fouling you never foul up 3 with 9 seconds left because we seen why I hope someone learned a lesson.
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Post by azvike83 on Feb 17, 2023 21:06:35 GMT -5
OMG
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Feb 17, 2023 21:34:33 GMT -5
CSU still has a sliver of a chance. Back to the scenarios.
CSU wins out Robert Morris wins out (Milwaukee, YSU, IUPUI) Oakland loses to Wright State and Northern Kentucky Detroit loses one more game (IUPUI, NKU, WSU)
(Assuming of course that YSU doesn’t lose to GB or IUPUI)
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Post by gbanks on Feb 18, 2023 16:25:09 GMT -5
Found a link that illustrates the seeding probabilites. The good news it predicts a less than 1% chance of the Vikes falling out of the top 4. But only a 2% chance of landing the top seed. Playoff Status
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Post by henrymuto on Feb 18, 2023 21:43:08 GMT -5
Robert Morris smashes Milwaukee 80-60
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Feb 19, 2023 19:55:05 GMT -5
Scenario for a tie for the regular season championship:
CSU beats GB and Milwaukee YSU loses to RMU or IUPUI
I’m ruling out YSU losing to IUPUI and focusing on RMU. If CSU wins out, we need RMU to beat YSU and to finish ahead of Oakland and Detroit, or for RMU to finish ahead of Detroit and tied with Oakland, with PFW ahead of Detroit.
RMU ahead of Oakland scenario:
CSU wins out RMU beats YSU AND IUPUI Oakland loses to WSU AND NKU Detroit loses to one of NKU OR WSU
OR
RMU tied with Oakland/PFW ahead of Detroit scenario:
CSU wins out RMU beats YSU AND IUPUI Oakland loses to one of WSU OR NKU Detroit loses to both NKU AND WSU PFW beats both Milwaukee AND GB
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Post by Admin on Feb 20, 2023 13:01:29 GMT -5
Updated Per KenPom odds: For CSU to share regular season title (would receive 2 seed in tournament): Probability of Youngstown State losing to either Robert Morris (66% to win) or IUPUI (94% to win): 37.96% Probability of Cleveland State beating both Green Bay(88%) and Milwaukee (51%): 44.88% Probability of both things happening (CSU to share conference title): 17.036448% For CSU to get the 1 seed: All of the above, plus: Robert Morris would have to leapfrog Wright State and Detroit with whom they are tied in the standings with, as well as finish above Oakland, who is one game better than them in the standings. I'm gonna save myself the time to do all of those scenarios and just go with www.playoffstatus.com who says 4% chance CSU gets the 1 seed
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Feb 20, 2023 13:42:02 GMT -5
Updated Per KenPom odds: For CSU to share regular season title (would receive 2 seed in tournament): Probability of Youngstown State losing to either Robert Morris (66% to win) or IUPUI (94% to win): 37.96% Probability of Cleveland State beating both Green Bay(88%) and Milwaukee (51%): 44.88% Probability of both things happening (CSU to share conference title): 17.036448% For CSU to get the 1 seed: All of the above, plus: Robert Morris would have to leapfrog Wright State and Detroit with whom they are tied in the standings with, as well as finish above Oakland, who is one game better than them in the standings. I'm gonna save myself the time to do all of those scenarios and just go with www.playoffstatus.com who says 4% chance CSU gets the 1 seed From how I understand the tiebreakers, Wright State is irrelevant because both YSU and CSU went 2-0 vs. WSU. And if RMU was 1-1 against YSU and they tied with Oakland, it would be a wash because both YSU and CSU would be 2-2 against RMU/Oakland combined. That’s the scenario where PFW above Detroit comes into play.
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Feb 20, 2023 15:02:19 GMT -5
Cleveland State’s only chance at the 1 seed is RMU beating YSU because CSU can’t win the tiebreaker otherwise.
So let’s pretend CSU wins out and YSU loses to RMU. Here’s how each team would compare against the rest of the league.
NKU both 1-1 Milwaukee both 1-1 Oakland YSU 2-0/CSU 1-1 Wright State both 2-0 Robert Morris YSU 1-1/CSU 2-0 Detroit YSU 2-0/CSU 1-1 Purdue Fort Wayne YSU 1-1/CSU 2-0 Green Bay both 2-0 IUPUI both 2-0
The only differences would be Oakland, RMU, Detroit and PFW. The other teams all wash out. Remember though, that when teams are tied in the standings, the tiebreaker looks at the first place team’s combined record against the tied teams. For example. CSU loses the tiebreaker if Oakland is ahead of RMU. But if Oakland and RMU are tied in the standings, both YSU and CSU would be 2-2 against those teams and the tiebreaker would continue farther down the standings (to where CSU’s only chance would rely on PFW finishing ahead of Detroit).
So, once again, CSU needs one of two scenarios to happen: RMU finishes ahead of Oakland. Or RMU finishes tied with Oakland and PFW finishes ahead of Detroit.
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Post by henrymuto on Feb 20, 2023 16:51:05 GMT -5
I would have liked the #1 seed but not likely to happen. If we could won a couple of these 3 losses that still sting to me things would be different.
Up 3 on Milwaukee at home CSU does not foul and Milwaukee sinks a 3 in the final seconds to send to OT then they win.
Up 3 at Northern Kentucky and this time CSU does foul but with too much time left like 9 seconds and they make both FT's to cut it to 1 then they foul us we only make 1 out of 2 then they hit a 3 at the buzzer.
Then the one that really bothers me up 6 at Oakland with 26 seconds left and lose.
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Post by csuvikings2014 on Feb 20, 2023 16:59:06 GMT -5
I would have liked the #1 seed but not likely to happen. If we could won a couple of these 3 losses that still sting to me things would be different. Up 3 on Milwaukee at home CSU does not foul and Milwaukee sinks a 3 in the final seconds to send to OT then they win. Up 3 at Northern Kentucky and this time CSU does foul but with too much time left like 9 seconds and they make both FT's to cut it to 1 then they foul us we only make 1 out of 2 then they hit a 3 at the buzzer. Then the one that really bothers me up 6 at Oakland with 26 seconds left and lose. Dude ... Let. It. Go.
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Post by ede on Feb 20, 2023 17:07:26 GMT -5
I would have liked the #1 seed but not likely to happen. If we could won a couple of these 3 losses that still sting to me things would be different. Up 3 on Milwaukee at home CSU does not foul and Milwaukee sinks a 3 in the final seconds to send to OT then they win. Up 3 at Northern Kentucky and this time CSU does foul but with too much time left like 9 seconds and they make both FT's to cut it to 1 then they foul us we only make 1 out of 2 then they hit a 3 at the buzzer. Then the one that really bothers me up 6 at Oakland with 26 seconds left and lose. Dude ... Let. It. Go. Well, it's true.
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Post by theonetheonly on Feb 21, 2023 20:46:56 GMT -5
Got the Robert Morris win over YSU. Door is open a little wider.
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Post by vikesfan on Feb 21, 2023 20:48:02 GMT -5
RMU dominatiNG YSU… step 1 to a 3pete is complete.
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Feb 21, 2023 20:58:52 GMT -5
CSU beating GB and Milwaukee now clinches a tie for the conference championship, at worst.
If CSU wins both and YSU somehow loses to IUPUI, CSU wins outright.
This actually opens up the unlikely scenario that CSU could still tie for the championship even with a loss.
If tied, we’re one step closer to RMU giving CSU the tiebreaker. We’re rooting against Oakland and Detroit, and for Fort Wayne (just in case).
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