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Post by azvike83 on Feb 10, 2022 16:03:17 GMT -5
the HLT final 4 is in Indy, correct? (or is it just the Final game)...so winning the regular season really only gets us 1 home court game in the HLT?....or 2?...would we get a double bye, or single bye? Meaning that if we come in second, the only way we dont have home court throughout is if the 1st place team is still in it at that point correct? Might be clearer if someone with more HLT knowledge could put together a mock bracket "if the season ended today"...thanks for any clarity.
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Post by azvike83 on Feb 10, 2022 16:09:26 GMT -5
OK...just checked the HL website. Looks like the Top 4 teams get a single bye and a home court game. after that the final 4 is in Indy. So other than the "prestige" of winning the regular season, really all we need to do is finish in the top 4. (as far as a "home court" advantage goes)
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Post by henrymuto on Feb 10, 2022 17:24:06 GMT -5
Yes that is what I see it as well. I have been saying it be nice to be #1 seed but really being top 3 is all that matters but now is basically top 4. I was saying top 3 because I assumed Oakland would be #1 and wanted to avoid them until the finals but that is out the window now. Heck CSU could be #1 and Oakland could be #4.
We need to win these next 2 games since things get real after this. That ending trip to Detroit and Oakland both could easily be losses.
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Post by gbanks on Feb 10, 2022 17:45:41 GMT -5
I'm not sure it matters anyway. The 1st place finish used to guarantee a spot in the NIT. I don't think the guarantee exists any longer. Therefore it only influences the seeding in the HLT and once you get past the bottom 4 teams, it's going to be a battle no matter who you draw. The season boils down to winning the HLT. The guarantee is supposed to be back again this year. It was taken away previously because they shrunk the field due to Covid. That's good to know. All things being equal, I hope the Vikes win the HLT. If the Vikes get the top seed, all the better.
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Feb 10, 2022 21:36:01 GMT -5
Yes that is what I see it as well. I have been saying it be nice to be #1 seed but really being top 3 is all that matters but now is basically top 4. I was saying top 3 because I assumed Oakland would be #1 and wanted to avoid them until the finals but that is out the window now. Heck CSU could be #1 and Oakland could be #4. We need to win these next 2 games since things get real after this. That ending trip to Detroit and Oakland both could easily be losses. Just like last year, I wholeheartedly disagree with this take. Winning championships matter. In every sport. At every level. *Especially* at a place like CSU that has had very little success. Winning the regular season allows you to hang a banner even if you lose in the tournament. That helps in recruiting and in building a program. Not to mention it locks in a spot in the NIT which is a fine consolation prize that - again - helps with recruiting at this level.
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Feb 11, 2022 21:39:52 GMT -5
Wright State loses to Milwaukee 2 days after Milwaukee lost by 36. That’s a big help after our loss to UIC.
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Post by gbanks on Feb 11, 2022 21:49:04 GMT -5
Wright State loses to Milwaukee 2 days after Milwaukee lost by 36. That’s a big help after our loss to UIC. Seems like no one is interested in the 1st seed. In the meantime there are now teams bunching up together near the top. After Saturday, the Vikes are on the road and it is possible to find themselves in a precarious position.
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Feb 11, 2022 21:55:23 GMT -5
Wright State loses to Milwaukee 2 days after Milwaukee lost by 36. That’s a big help after our loss to UIC. Seems like no one is interested in the 1st seed. In the meantime there are now teams bunching up together near the top. After Saturday, the Vikes are on the road and it is possible to find themselves in a precarious position. I agree, nobody is running away with it. Even if both WSU and Oak win out we would still win it going 5-1. I think 4-2 will do the job as I predict at least one more loss for both WSU and Oak as they have some tough games remaining. I think 4-2 for us is doable.
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Feb 12, 2022 10:48:36 GMT -5
the HLT final 4 is in Indy, correct? (or is it just the Final game)...so winning the regular season really only gets us 1 home court game in the HLT?....or 2?...would we get a double bye, or single bye? Meaning that if we come in second, the only way we dont have home court throughout is if the 1st place team is still in it at that point correct? Might be clearer if someone with more HLT knowledge could put together a mock bracket "if the season ended today"...thanks for any clarity. I’m unclear on how it will work now with only 11 teams eligible (after the UIC ban). My guess is the 5th seed will also get a bye into the quarterfinals. In that case, 8 (Milwaukee) would host 9 (RMU) with the winner heading to 1 (CSU) 4 (NKU) and 5 (YSU) would both have byes to the quarters with 4 hosting 5 7 (UDM) would host 10 (GB) with the winner heading to 2 (Oakland) 6 (PFW) would host 11 (IUPUI) with the winner heading to 3 (WSU)
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Post by azvike83 on Feb 12, 2022 19:03:17 GMT -5
This is my understanding also...
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Feb 13, 2022 14:05:54 GMT -5
Down goes Wright State. NKU now in 3rd place. We would also have the tiebreaker over NKU due to more games played even though we split.
Oakland down 2 at the half to Detroit. A Grizzlies loss would really put us in the drivers seat.
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Post by gbanks on Feb 13, 2022 14:11:05 GMT -5
Down goes Wright State. NKU now in 3rd place. We would also have the tiebreaker over NKU due to more games played even though we split. Oakland down 2 at the half to Detroit. A Grizzlies loss would really put us in the drivers seat. Moral of this story is losses have much larger impacts to the standing than wins.
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Feb 13, 2022 14:48:13 GMT -5
the HLT final 4 is in Indy, correct? (or is it just the Final game)...so winning the regular season really only gets us 1 home court game in the HLT?....or 2?...would we get a double bye, or single bye? Meaning that if we come in second, the only way we dont have home court throughout is if the 1st place team is still in it at that point correct? Might be clearer if someone with more HLT knowledge could put together a mock bracket "if the season ended today"...thanks for any clarity. I’m unclear on how it will work now with only 11 teams eligible (after the UIC ban). My guess is the 5th seed will also get a bye into the quarterfinals. In that case, 8 (Milwaukee) would host 9 (RMU) with the winner heading to 1 (CSU) 4 (NKU) and 5 (YSU) would both have byes to the quarters with 4 hosting 5 7 (UDM) would host 10 (GB) with the winner heading to 2 (Oakland) 6 (PFW) would host 11 (IUPUI) with the winner heading to 3 (WSU) Something I had forgotten, last year the bracket re-seeded after the first round. So if there was an upset, the lowest remaining team would face the top seed. For example, the top seed would normally face the winner of the 8/9 game, but if 11 upset 6 then the top seed would face 11 and the winner of the 8/9 game would slide down to face the 2 seed. And it re-seeded again after the quarterfinals so the lowest remaining seed faced the highest remaining seed. This is how we faced 10 seed PFW and 8 seed Milwaukee in the quarters and semis last year. I hope this stays in place as it’s a nice advantage for the top seed. Yet another reason why winning the regular season championship does matter.
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Post by henrymuto on Feb 13, 2022 19:25:36 GMT -5
The loss to UIC means we are likely not going to get the top seed. We have 5 straight road games and Oakland's last 5 games are all at home (1 of which they won today so 4 more to go)
Only up 1 in the loss column so we either need to win at Oakland plus win 2 of the other 4 or we need to win 4 in a row before playing Oakland to have locked it up (assuming Oakland wins their next 3)
We play 1 more game then Oakland so if we both end up with 4 losses we will have 1 more win despite being swept.
So win the next 4 or beat Oakland is how we get #1 seed. (As long as we win at least 2 of the first 4 road games)
Northern Kentucky has 5 losses so they still are a threat to us getting #2 seed if we start losing.
Wright State has 6 losses so we would have to collapse bad for them to pass us but with 5 straight road games and our team almost never playing road games (only 6 all year) I could see a 1-4 finish possible.
We don't want to end up 5th that would be tragic to have to go on the road.
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Post by henrymuto on Feb 13, 2022 19:38:50 GMT -5
Detroit only playing 17 out of the 22 games is crazy. Just 7-6 right now with 4 left.
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Post by henrymuto on Feb 13, 2022 19:43:55 GMT -5
CSU needs to win 2 out of the final 5 to clinch a top 4 seed and home court in the quarters.
If CSU wins just 1 game there are many ways they can still clinch a top 4 but there is a path that if all goes wrong they end up the #5 seed. It would require PWF to win out if they lose just once CSU clinches a top 4 seed with any 1 win.
So tomorrow they have a shot to clinch a top 4 seed with a win at PFW
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Feb 13, 2022 22:39:27 GMT -5
The loss to UIC means we are likely not going to get the top seed. We have 5 straight road games and Oakland's last 5 games are all at home (1 of which they won today so 4 more to go) Only up 1 in the loss column so we either need to win at Oakland plus win 2 of the other 4 or we need to win 4 in a row before playing Oakland to have locked it up (assuming Oakland wins their next 3) We play 1 more game then Oakland so if we both end up with 4 losses we will have 1 more win despite being swept. So win the next 4 or beat Oakland is how we get #1 seed. (As long as we win at least 2 of the first 4 road games) Northern Kentucky has 5 losses so they still are a threat to us getting #2 seed if we start losing. Wright State has 6 losses so we would have to collapse bad for them to pass us but with 5 straight road games and our team almost never playing road games (only 6 all year) I could see a 1-4 finish possible. We don't want to end up 5th that would be tragic to have to go on the road. We have the tie breaker on Oakland even if we get swept. We’re virtually two games up on them right now. Another loss by Oakland and we’d have to lose 3 of 5 to not be the top seed.
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Post by henrymuto on Feb 13, 2022 22:47:58 GMT -5
The loss to UIC means we are likely not going to get the top seed. We have 5 straight road games and Oakland's last 5 games are all at home (1 of which they won today so 4 more to go) Only up 1 in the loss column so we either need to win at Oakland plus win 2 of the other 4 or we need to win 4 in a row before playing Oakland to have locked it up (assuming Oakland wins their next 3) We play 1 more game then Oakland so if we both end up with 4 losses we will have 1 more win despite being swept. So win the next 4 or beat Oakland is how we get #1 seed. (As long as we win at least 2 of the first 4 road games) Northern Kentucky has 5 losses so they still are a threat to us getting #2 seed if we start losing. Wright State has 6 losses so we would have to collapse bad for them to pass us but with 5 straight road games and our team almost never playing road games (only 6 all year) I could see a 1-4 finish possible. We don't want to end up 5th that would be tragic to have to go on the road. We have the tie breaker on Oakland even if we get swept. We’re virtually two games up on them right now. Another loss by Oakland and we’d have to lose 3 of 5 to not be the top seed. Yes if Oakland loses 1 more game CSU needs to go just 3-2 to get #1 seed. If Oakland wins out though CSU needs to go 4-1 to get the #1 seed. (I said this already above I said if we lose to Oakland we need to win the other 4 I was assuming Oakland wins out all their games are at home.) CSU going 3-2 is going to be tough all 5 are road games. We only have tie breaker because we are playing 2 more games it been better if we were only playing 1 more game than they were because we have to win 2 more games than them to "win that tiebreaker"
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Feb 13, 2022 23:14:02 GMT -5
We have the tie breaker on Oakland even if we get swept. We’re virtually two games up on them right now. Another loss by Oakland and we’d have to lose 3 of 5 to not be the top seed. Yes if Oakland loses 1 more game CSU needs to go just 3-2 to get #1 seed. If Oakland wins out though CSU needs to go 4-1 to get the #1 seed. (I said this already above I said if we lose to Oakland we need to win the other 4 I was assuming Oakland wins out all their games are at home.) CSU going 3-2 is going to be tough all 5 are road games. We only have tie breaker because we are playing 2 more games it been better if we were only playing 1 more game than they were because we have to win 2 more games than them to "win that tiebreaker" I guess I don’t understand how needing to go 4-1 at worst and likely 3-2 equates to us “likely not getting the top seed.” Oakland still plays WSU and NKU this weekend plus us. Those are the 3 top teams in the league besides themselves, while the teams we play besides Oakland are rated 6th, 7th, 8th and 11th.
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Post by azvike83 on Feb 14, 2022 8:36:16 GMT -5
I'd love to win the regular season championship...if we don't, though...all we really need to do is finish in the top 4. After that, its anyone's HLT anyway.
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Post by henrymuto on Feb 14, 2022 18:24:35 GMT -5
I'd love to win the regular season championship...if we don't, though...all we really need to do is finish in the top 5. After that, its anyone's HLT anyway. 5th is no good that means you play a road game in the quarters. When you have sat in 1st place for almost the entire season to end up 5th would be a slap in the face. They have to finish in the top 4 at the very minimum but I am hoping for top 2.
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Feb 15, 2022 6:06:59 GMT -5
Update: if Oakland wins out, including beating CSU, they are the top seed. If CSU wins out, including beating Oakland, we are the top seed.
CSU also gets the top seed with: An Oakland loss in one of their next three games (to WSU, NKU or PFW) AND by winning the next 3 (at Mil, at GB and at Det). (The final game at Oakland would be meaningless to CSU in this scenario). OR By winning 2 of the next 3 (at Mil, at GB and at Det) AND beating Oakland in the final game.
Summary: Without an Oakland loss we have to win out. With an Oakland loss we can win the next 3 and still lose to Oakland to be the top seed or lose one more as long as we beat Oakland.
There’s also a scenario where we can win it by going 2-2 with a loss to Oakland, but that involves 2 Oakland losses and 1 loss each from NKU and WSU.
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Post by gbanks on Feb 15, 2022 7:36:17 GMT -5
You feel that UIC loss biting yet?
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Feb 15, 2022 9:08:05 GMT -5
You feel that UIC loss biting yet? Of course it bites. Last night too. But losses happen. Going undefeated or 18-2 or whatever isn’t realistic. That was my point. 5 and maybe even 6 losses will win the conference.
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Post by gbanks on Feb 15, 2022 9:48:37 GMT -5
You feel that UIC loss biting yet? Of course it bites. Last night too. But losses happen. Going undefeated or 18-2 or whatever isn’t realistic. That was my point. 5 and maybe even 6 losses will win the conference. Last night was a little different (at least to me). PFW is a decent team and are capable of beating anyone in the HL on any given night. UIC is in a different category (not a good one). Agreed, going undefeated is not a realistic expectation. But you have to beat the teams you are suppose to beat.
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Feb 15, 2022 10:10:17 GMT -5
Of course it bites. Last night too. But losses happen. Going undefeated or 18-2 or whatever isn’t realistic. That was my point. 5 and maybe even 6 losses will win the conference. Last night was a little different (at least to me). PFW is a decent team and are capable of beating anyone in the HL on any given night. UIC is in a different category (not a good one). Agreed, going undefeated is not a realistic expectation. But you have to beat the teams you are suppose to beat. That’s fair. I just think we spend too much time with what ifs on this board and not enough time appreciating the good things. We can probably count 4-5 games we should have lost and fans from other teams are counting those as ones *they* should have had (RMU, YSU x2, WSU, Det could have all been losses).
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Post by gbanks on Feb 15, 2022 11:53:14 GMT -5
Last night was a little different (at least to me). PFW is a decent team and are capable of beating anyone in the HL on any given night. UIC is in a different category (not a good one). Agreed, going undefeated is not a realistic expectation. But you have to beat the teams you are suppose to beat. That’s fair. I just think we spend too much time with what ifs on this board and not enough time appreciating the good things. We can probably count 4-5 games we should have lost and fans from other teams are counting those as ones *they* should have had (RMU, YSU x2, WSU, Det could have all been losses). Yes, anyone of those teams you mention will be a danger in the HLT. The first rule of Fight Club (I'm mean being a fan), is that reality is whacked and you never get enough Wins. Loses are vial to the soul. In the end, only championships matter; the alternative is pitch forks and torches.
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Post by stanley on Feb 15, 2022 14:42:26 GMT -5
Update: if Oakland wins out, including beating CSU, they are the top seed. If CSU wins out, including beating Oakland, we are the top seed. CSU also gets the top seed with: An Oakland loss in one of their next three games (to WSU, NKU or PFW) AND by winning the next 3 (at Mil, at GB and at Det). (The final game at Oakland would be meaningless to CSU in this scenario). OR By winning 2 of the next 3 (at Mil, at GB and at Det) AND beating Oakland in the final game. Summary: Without an Oakland loss we have to win out. With an Oakland loss we can win the next 3 and still lose to Oakland to be the top seed or lose one more as long as we beat Oakland. There’s also a scenario where we can win it by going 2-2 with a loss to Oakland, but that involves 2 Oakland losses and 1 loss each from NKU and WSU. I appreciate you posting this scenario. The Horizon League scheduling CSU on the road for the final five games in a row looks even worse now. I still can't believe the HL would do that to any team, but especially the one that was picked to finish first.
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Post by Hedley Lamarr on Feb 15, 2022 19:29:47 GMT -5
We finish with so many road games because of the NBA all-star weekend events at the Wolstein.
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Feb 15, 2022 20:16:38 GMT -5
We finish with so many road games because of the NBA all-star weekend events at the Wolstein. That’s the company line (you’re not wrong). But couldn’t we have played last night at home (swapping to play at PFW in early Jan)? And then the final weekend starts Thursday 2/24, exactly 5 days after the Wolstein Center is being used as part of the festivities (and 4 days after the All Star game itself). It just seems lazy to me like that didn’t even try to make it work around one weekend being blacked out.
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