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Post by henrymuto on Feb 20, 2022 17:09:25 GMT -5
Wow Vikings clinch #1 seed as things all fell perfect today. I would have bet it been like at least 20-1 odds against that happening today yet it did.
So now ironically we root for Oakland to beat PFW so we can be outright champs.
I really don't think we win at Detroit so we will see what we can do at Oakland.
We wrapped up #1 seed which is all we can do but I can still dislike the UIC and PFW losses the way they went down.
While it didn't matter for our seeding in the Horizon tourney those 2 losses will keep us from being a #14 seed most likely. We have to win the Horizon league title first but if we do I much rather be a 14 seed over a 15 seed.
Maybe we can still get to a 14 if we win out but I highly doubt we can.
Anyway great day today and pressure is off next 2 games.
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Post by gbanks on Feb 20, 2022 17:17:15 GMT -5
Wow Vikings clinch #1 seed as things all fell perfect today. I would have bet it been like at least 20-1 odds against that happening today yet it did. So now ironically we root for Oakland to beat PFW so we can be outright champs. I really don't think we win at Detroit so we will see what we can do at Oakland. We wrapped up #1 seed which is all we can do but I can still dislike the UIC and PFW losses the way they went down. While it didn't matter for our seeding in the Horizon tourney those 2 losses will keep us from being a #14 seed most likely. We have to win the Horizon league title first but if we do I much rather be a 14 seed over a 15 seed. Maybe we can still get to a 14 if we win out but I highly doubt we can. Anyway great day today and pressure is off next 2 games. I believe if 2 lose both games and PFW wins both, we are both 15 - 6. However, I believe the tie breaker will be the 2 Ws to 1 L head to head this season.
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Post by henrymuto on Feb 20, 2022 17:20:00 GMT -5
Really crazy that PWF is currently in 2nd place but they have 2 hard road games at Oakland and at Detroit to finish.
With CSU as the #1 seed they will be playing 1 of the following 5 teams for the quarterfinals game as all these teams currently have losing records with at least 3 games below .500 and all teams in the 2-7 spots currently having wining records all with at least 3 games above .500.
So in some order the 8-12 teams will be
UIC 7-10 Milwaukee 7-13 Robert Morris 5-14 Green Bay 3-15 IUPUI 1-14
The 1 team I would want to avoid would be UIC as they have proved they can beat us all the others have not.
So we would need a road win from 1 of the other 4 teams to get them in the quarters.
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Post by henrymuto on Feb 20, 2022 17:20:29 GMT -5
Wow Vikings clinch #1 seed as things all fell perfect today. I would have bet it been like at least 20-1 odds against that happening today yet it did. So now ironically we root for Oakland to beat PFW so we can be outright champs. I really don't think we win at Detroit so we will see what we can do at Oakland. We wrapped up #1 seed which is all we can do but I can still dislike the UIC and PFW losses the way they went down. While it didn't matter for our seeding in the Horizon tourney those 2 losses will keep us from being a #14 seed most likely. We have to win the Horizon league title first but if we do I much rather be a 14 seed over a 15 seed. Maybe we can still get to a 14 if we win out but I highly doubt we can. Anyway great day today and pressure is off next 2 games. I believe if 2 lose both games and PFW wins both, we are both 15 - 6. However, I believe the tie breaker will be the 2 Ws to 1 L head to head this season. Yes we locked up #1 seed but we would still "share" the championship at 15-6
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Feb 20, 2022 17:27:42 GMT -5
Wow Vikings clinch #1 seed as things all fell perfect today. I would have bet it been like at least 20-1 odds against that happening today yet it did. So now ironically we root for Oakland to beat PFW so we can be outright champs. I really don't think we win at Detroit so we will see what we can do at Oakland. We wrapped up #1 seed which is all we can do but I can still dislike the UIC and PFW losses the way they went down. While it didn't matter for our seeding in the Horizon tourney those 2 losses will keep us from being a #14 seed most likely. We have to win the Horizon league title first but if we do I much rather be a 14 seed over a 15 seed. Maybe we can still get to a 14 if we win out but I highly doubt we can. Anyway great day today and pressure is off next 2 games. I love you Henry but I don’t think in the 15 or so years that I remember you posting that a single “it’s all gonna come back to bite us because of this one game” scenario has actually ever come true. I’ve been talking about this exact scenario for weeks. I would argue that what happened today was the most likely outcome - as I posted the records and streaks of the 6 teams in the games of note today. And even if Oakland lost we still had very favorable odds to win it. Try to relax and enjoy the journey more often instead of worrying about the past or the final destination. Cheers. Go Vikes!
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Post by gbanks on Feb 20, 2022 17:42:00 GMT -5
I believe if 2 lose both games and PFW wins both, we are both 15 - 6. However, I believe the tie breaker will be the 2 Ws to 1 L head to head this season. Yes we locked up #1 seed but we would still "share" the championship at 15-6 No worries. The Vikes need to keep building momentum into the HLT. Just stay hungry.
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Post by henrymuto on Feb 20, 2022 18:04:20 GMT -5
I assume the conf tournament is same as last year with re-seeding is that correct ? When I went out to pick up dinner tonight I turned on 1100 AM and Al Pawlowski said CSU will play the winner of the 8/9 game in the quarters but that is not correct if there are re-seeding it could be anyone from 8-12.
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Post by theonetheonly on Feb 20, 2022 18:37:18 GMT -5
Oakland fans are pretty funny. They are on their forum claiming they are still the best team in their conference. Right now they are the 5th seed. If we beat them it could be very tough for them to get a top 4 seed.
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Feb 20, 2022 18:44:52 GMT -5
I assume the conf tournament is same as last year with re-seeding is that correct ? When I went out to pick up dinner tonight I turned on 1100 AM and Al Pawlowski said CSU will play the winner of the 8/9 game in the quarters but that is not correct if there are re-seeding it could be anyone from 8-12. Yes, this is a rare instance of Al Pal being wrong. We will get the winner of the 8/9 game *if there are no upsets in the other games*
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Feb 20, 2022 20:33:43 GMT -5
Oakland fans are pretty funny. They are on their forum claiming they are still the best team in their conference. Right now they are the 5th seed. If we beat them it could be very tough for them to get a top 4 seed. It is funny. Wright State usually has that attitude too. When I first started this thread in late Jan, I mentioned how Oakland had somehow played over half the season without facing WSU, NKU OR Det, plus they still had to face us, PFW and YSU. I said I thought they’d lose 2 or 3 more, giving CSU a chance at the top seed. They’ve gone 2-5 since. I think Oakland fans have an overinflated view of their team based on their start against the bottom half of the league. That said, they did beat us at home and they have as good a shot as anyone in the tournament. I just don’t think they’re “clearly the top team” like they seem to think.
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Post by gbanks on Feb 20, 2022 20:41:41 GMT -5
Oakland fans are pretty funny. They are on their forum claiming they are still the best team in their conference. Right now they are the 5th seed. If we beat them it could be very tough for them to get a top 4 seed. It is funny. Wright State usually has that attitude too. When I first started this thread in late Jan, I mentioned how Oakland had somehow played over half the season without facing WSU, NKU OR Det, plus they still had to face us, PFW and YSU. I said I though they’d lose 2 or 3 more, giving CSU a chance at the top seed. They’ve gone 2-5 since. I think Oakland fans have an overinflated view of their team based on their start against the bottom half of the league. That said, they did beat us at home and they have as good a shot as anyone in the tournament. I just don’t think they’re “clearly the top team” like they seem to think. There are several teams capable of wining the HLT. The hot team prevail. Let's hope it's the Vikes.
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Post by henrymuto on Feb 20, 2022 21:00:23 GMT -5
Looking at the remaining schedules Northern Kentucky is the favorite to land the #2 seed. They just need to win home games vs Robert Morris and YSU who they will be favored over both and have PWF lose 1 game who plays at Oakland and at Detroit and will be an underdog in both.
Not sure how I feel about that as that means it is more likely for us to play vs 1 of Oakland or Wright State in the semi-finals (but not a lock).
Well it is what it is we did the best we could and fate will decide the rest.
Still need to win the quarters to get the semis of course.
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Feb 20, 2022 21:02:11 GMT -5
It is funny. Wright State usually has that attitude too. When I first started this thread in late Jan, I mentioned how Oakland had somehow played over half the season without facing WSU, NKU OR Det, plus they still had to face us, PFW and YSU. I said I though they’d lose 2 or 3 more, giving CSU a chance at the top seed. They’ve gone 2-5 since. I think Oakland fans have an overinflated view of their team based on their start against the bottom half of the league. That said, they did beat us at home and they have as good a shot as anyone in the tournament. I just don’t think they’re “clearly the top team” like they seem to think. There are several teams capable of wining the HLT. The hot team prevail. Let's hope it's the Vikes. I agree completely. CSU, PFW, NKU, WSU, Oakland could all easily win it, and teams like Detroit and YSU with Davis and Cohill always have a puncher’s chance too. That’s over half the league.
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Feb 20, 2022 21:07:21 GMT -5
I actually think this being wrapped up today caught some people off guard. The article on Cleveland.com doesn’t even mention it, Coach Gates was surprised in the video posted on Twitter, and the Twitter page didn’t post a champions graphic until about an hour ago. I figured they’d have it all queued up and would be cutting down the nets when they returned to Cleveland (although that would likely have to be done in Woodling with All Star festivities still going on). I guess none of them follow my posts on this board LOL
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Post by henrymuto on Feb 21, 2022 17:21:41 GMT -5
There are several teams capable of wining the HLT. The hot team prevail. Let's hope it's the Vikes. I agree completely. CSU, PFW, NKU, WSU, Oakland could all easily win it, and teams like Detroit and YSU with Davis and Cohill always have a puncher’s chance too. That’s over half the league. This is why getting #1 seed helps you avoid all those teams in the 1st game. It been even better if UIC stayed banned because that is the only team we lost to down at the 8-12 spots and we lost to them at home. I want to play any of the other 4 teams in the 1st game but doubtful that UIPUI or GB will win so it be left to Milwaukee and Robert Morris and I have zero faith in Morris so damn why did they let UIC back in.
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Post by gbanks on Feb 21, 2022 18:25:47 GMT -5
I agree completely. CSU, PFW, NKU, WSU, Oakland could all easily win it, and teams like Detroit and YSU with Davis and Cohill always have a puncher’s chance too. That’s over half the league. This is why getting #1 seed helps you avoid all those teams in the 1st game. It been even better if UIC stayed banned because that is the only team we lost to down at the 8-12 spots and we lost to them at home. I want to play any of the other 4 teams in the 1st game but doubtful that UIPUI or GB will win so it be left to Milwaukee and Robert Morris and I have zero faith in Morris so damn why did they let UIC back in. The Vikes tend to play relatively close games regardless of opponent. That is their MO and one of your biggest pain points. That is why I'm not as concern about UIC; as you are. That loss could have easily been RMU, or to several other teams. This is a big factor in why other fan bases (like Oakland) consider the Vikes a winnable matchup. The margin of each victory is often small. However, what they do not consider is that the loses are also by small variation in scores. So the Vikes are often in every game they play and they control enough of the variables to influence a positive outcome in most contests.
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Post by stanley on Feb 21, 2022 18:38:09 GMT -5
I assume the conf tournament is same as last year with re-seeding is that correct ? When I went out to pick up dinner tonight I turned on 1100 AM and Al Pawlowski said CSU will play the winner of the 8/9 game in the quarters but that is not correct if there are re-seeding it could be anyone from 8-12. I listened to the game and post-game. Al Pawlowski never said that.
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Post by stanley on Feb 21, 2022 18:50:05 GMT -5
This is why getting #1 seed helps you avoid all those teams in the 1st game. It been even better if UIC stayed banned because that is the only team we lost to down at the 8-12 spots and we lost to them at home. I want to play any of the other 4 teams in the 1st game but doubtful that UIPUI or GB will win so it be left to Milwaukee and Robert Morris and I have zero faith in Morris so damn why did they let UIC back in. The Vikes tend to play relatively close games regardless of opponent. That is their MO and one of your biggest pain points. That is why I'm not as concern about UIC; as you are. That loss could have easily been RMU, or to several other teams. This is a big factor in why other fan bases (like Oakland) consider the Vikes a winnable matchup. The margin of each victory is often small. However, what they do not consider is that the loses are also by small variation in scores. So the Vikes are often in every game they play and they control enough of the variables to influence a positive outcome in most contests. True. Also to your point, with CSU playing a deep rotation and usually some sort of a full-court defense most of the game (even if it's just guarding the point guard and making him work to get the ball up the court), the other teams get worn down. That's why they're in every game and end up winning most of them - they're fresher down the stretch. In a one and done scenario, anyone can oust anybody. But beating CSU in a tournament setting is pretty tough if you're not the more talented team. I would argue no one is more talented in the HL than CSU. You're never going to blow CSU out, and they have enough depth/talent to wear you down in the end. So, sure, a UIC or UDM could show up and beat CSU in the quarterfinal round. But that's going tough to beat the Vikings in a tournament setting on their home floor. I would actually like to see UIC again at the Wolstein. I find it hard to believe UIC would go 2-0 against CSU this year in Cleveland. I think they already got their upset. I doubt they would get two. The team I don't want to see - PFW. They know each other too well, decreasing the talent advantage CSU has, and the talent gap is not wide. Offensively, PFW is as good as anyone. Defensively is where they are lacking.
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Feb 21, 2022 20:06:25 GMT -5
The Vikes tend to play relatively close games regardless of opponent. That is their MO and one of your biggest pain points. That is why I'm not as concern about UIC; as you are. That loss could have easily been RMU, or to several other teams. This is a big factor in why other fan bases (like Oakland) consider the Vikes a winnable matchup. The margin of each victory is often small. However, what they do not consider is that the loses are also by small variation in scores. So the Vikes are often in every game they play and they control enough of the variables to influence a positive outcome in most contests. True. Also to your point, with CSU playing a deep rotation and usually some sort of a full-court defense most of the game (even if it's just guarding the point guard and making him work to get the ball up the court), the other teams get worn down. That's why they're in every game and end up winning most of them - they're fresher down the stretch. In a one and done scenario, anyone can oust anybody. But beating CSU in a tournament setting is pretty tough if you're not the more talented team. I would argue no one is more talented in the HL than CSU. You're never going to blow CSU out, and they have enough depth/talent to wear you down in the end. So, sure, a UIC or UDM could show up and beat CSU in the quarterfinal round. But that's going tough to beat the Vikings in a tournament setting on their home floor. I would actually like to see UIC again at the Wolstein. I find it hard to believe UIC would go 2-0 against CSU this year in Cleveland. I think they already got their upset. I doubt they would get two. The team I don't want to see - PFW. They know each other too well, decreasing the talent advantage CSU has, and the talent gap is not wide. Offensively, PFW is as good as anyone. Defensively is where they are lacking. All great points. I’ll just add that PFW has really turned a corner on defense as well, at least in terms of steals. They had a graphic during the game showing their steals per game over the past couple months and they’re one of the better teams in the country. It was a huge jump from the beginning of the season.
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Feb 21, 2022 22:05:27 GMT -5
I know the Horizon has been projected as a 16 seed so I did some analysis. I looked at the highest rated team in each mid-major conference according to the NET ratings. Oakland is rated 144 and CSU is rated 165. Wright State is next at 217, so this will focus on Oakland and CSU as “the top of the HL”.
Only two conferences have their highest rated team rated below CSU: the SWAC (Southern, 192) and the Southland (Nicholls St, 201). This is why we’re seeing the HL champ projected as a 16 seed.
However, there is room for improvement if there are upsets in other conference tournaments.
Conferences where the 2nd place team is rated below the top of the Horizon League:
America East: Vermont (65) is running away with the America East conference, but all other teams are rated 235+.
Northeast: 1st place Wagner is rated 115 and all others are 230+
MEAC: 1st place Norfolk St is rated 157 and all others are 227+.
Conferences where the 3rd place team is rated below the top of the Horizon League:
A-Sun: Jacksonville (179) is in 3rd but only a half game behind Liberty (112) and Jacksonville State (141).
Big Sky: 3rd place Southern Utah (188) is only 2 games off the pace (and 2nd place Weber St is just ahead of CSU at 164).
MAAC: 3rd place St. Peter’s (174) has played competitively in two games with 1st place Iona.
Patriot: 3rd place Boston U (193) actually has the best overall record in the Patriot.
Summit: SD State is 16-0 in the Summit but 3rd place ND State (182) is 20-9, 12-5.
Other: Big South: 4th place rated below Oak/CSU Big West: 5th place rated below Oak/CSU CAA: 5th place rated below Oak/CSU MAC: 5th place rated below Oak/CSU
Summary: in order for the HL to avoid a 16-seed, it’s likely that either CSU or Oakland needs to win the tournament. And at least 4 upsets need to happen (accounting for there being six 16 seeds with play-in games). HL fans should be rooting against Vermont, Wagner and Norfolk St in their respective tournaments, as well as 3rd place (or lower) teams from the A-Sun, Big Sky, MAAC, Patriot and Summit. Long-shot upsets from the Big South, Big West, CAA and MAC wouldn’t hurt either.
If there are a total of 8 upsets (with the winners being rated below Oakland/CSU) then a 14 seed is possible, but the best realistic opportunity is avoiding a play-in game, with moving up to a 15 a secondary opportunity.
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Post by henrymuto on Feb 21, 2022 22:23:07 GMT -5
I assume the conf tournament is same as last year with re-seeding is that correct ? When I went out to pick up dinner tonight I turned on 1100 AM and Al Pawlowski said CSU will play the winner of the 8/9 game in the quarters but that is not correct if there are re-seeding it could be anyone from 8-12. I listened to the game and post-game. Al Pawlowski never said that. He sure did. I went to get some dinner a little after the game and he said it. Sorry you don't believe me but I 100% heard him say those exact words "CSU will play the winner of the 8/9 game".
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Post by gbanks on Feb 21, 2022 22:23:25 GMT -5
I know the Horizon has been projected as a 16 seed so I did some analysis. I looked at the highest rated team in each mid-major conference according to the NET ratings. Oakland is rated 144 and CSU is rated 165. Wright State is next at 217, so this will focus on Oakland and CSU as “the top of the HL”. Only two conferences have their highest rated team rated below CSU: the SWAC (Southern, 192) and the Southland (Nicholls St, 201). This is why we’re seeing the HL champ projected as a 16 seed. However, there is room for improvement if there are upsets in other conference tournaments. Conferences where the 2nd place team is rated below the top of the Horizon League: America East: Vermont (65) is running away with the America East conference, but all other teams are rated 235+. Northeast: 1st place Wagner is rated 115 and all others are 230+ MEAC: 1st place Norfolk St is rated 157 and all others are 227+. Conferences where the 3rd place team is rated below the top of the Horizon League: A-Sun: Jacksonville (179) is in 3rd but only a half game behind Liberty (112) and Jacksonville State (141). Big Sky: 3rd place Southern Utah (188) is only 2 games off the pace (and 2nd place Weber St is just ahead of CSU at 164). MAAC: 3rd place St. Peter’s (174) has played competitively in two games with 1st place Iona. Patriot: 3rd place Boston U (193) actually has the best overall record in the Patriot. Summit: SD State is 16-0 in the Summit but 3rd place ND State (182) is 20-9, 12-5. Other: Big South: 4th place rated below Oak/CSU Big West: 5th place rated below Oak/CSU CAA: 5th place rated below Oak/CSU MAC: 5th place rated below Oak/CSU Summary: in order for the HL to avoid a 16-seed, it’s likely that either CSU or Oakland needs to win the tournament. And at least 4 upsets need to happen (accounting for there being six 16 seeds with play-in games). HL fans should be rooting against Vermont, Wagner and Norfolk St in their respective tournaments, as well as 3rd place (or lower) teams from the A-Sun, Big Sky, MAAC, Patriot and Summit. Long-shot upsets from the Big South, Big West, CAA and MAC wouldn’t hurt either. If there are a total of 8 upsets (with the winners being rated below Oakland/CSU) then a 14 seed is possible, but the best realistic opportunity is avoiding a play-in game, with moving up to a 15 a secondary opportunity. The way I look at it is to get to the NCAA's and avoid the play in. We can't do anything about the rest of the HL. We need to leverage each visit to the NCAAs to recruit. Hopefully each year there will be incremental improvement and we win some of the OOC games that we lost this year. Wining those OOC games with better recruitment classes will allow us to become independent of how the rest of the HL performs. That is the only way we get better seeding. The Vikes need to play the long game. Wining the HLT is the objective (year after year). Once we get good at that, wining NCAA games will be next.
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Post by henrymuto on Feb 21, 2022 23:19:58 GMT -5
No idea how CSU almost beat Oklahoma State they are damn good.
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Feb 22, 2022 4:56:21 GMT -5
No idea how CSU almost beat Oklahoma State they are damn good. Well for one, CSU was playing arguably its best stretch of basketball right then, having won 6 in a row and coming off convincing wins over both NKU and WSU. Also, Bryce Thompson didn’t play for Okie St. He’s one of their top players.
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Post by azvike83 on Feb 22, 2022 10:58:13 GMT -5
Lest we forget, Oakland DID beat them.
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Post by ede on Feb 22, 2022 11:17:14 GMT -5
Lest we forget, Oakland DID beat them. We have a team of very very good players. We lack a Jamal Cain. A guy like that. We beat OSU and run the table in the HL. Oakland problem is they have Cain, Moore and Towsend caring the load with very little depth. Same with WSU. They got tired. Down the stretch.
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Post by ac on Feb 22, 2022 14:34:53 GMT -5
Oklahoma state is 13-14. They're not that good
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Post by faninsouthbend on Feb 22, 2022 14:56:48 GMT -5
I know the Horizon has been projected as a 16 seed so I did some analysis. I looked at the highest rated team in each mid-major conference according to the NET ratings. Oakland is rated 144 and CSU is rated 165. Wright State is next at 217, so this will focus on Oakland and CSU as “the top of the HL”. Only two conferences have their highest rated team rated below CSU: the SWAC (Southern, 192) and the Southland (Nicholls St, 201). This is why we’re seeing the HL champ projected as a 16 seed. However, there is room for improvement if there are upsets in other conference tournaments. Conferences where the 2nd place team is rated below the top of the Horizon League: America East: Vermont (65) is running away with the America East conference, but all other teams are rated 235+. Northeast: 1st place Wagner is rated 115 and all others are 230+ MEAC: 1st place Norfolk St is rated 157 and all others are 227+. Conferences where the 3rd place team is rated below the top of the Horizon League: A-Sun: Jacksonville (179) is in 3rd but only a half game behind Liberty (112) and Jacksonville State (141). Big Sky: 3rd place Southern Utah (188) is only 2 games off the pace (and 2nd place Weber St is just ahead of CSU at 164). MAAC: 3rd place St. Peter’s (174) has played competitively in two games with 1st place Iona. Patriot: 3rd place Boston U (193) actually has the best overall record in the Patriot. Summit: SD State is 16-0 in the Summit but 3rd place ND State (182) is 20-9, 12-5. Other: Big South: 4th place rated below Oak/CSU Big West: 5th place rated below Oak/CSU CAA: 5th place rated below Oak/CSU MAC: 5th place rated below Oak/CSU Summary: in order for the HL to avoid a 16-seed, it’s likely that either CSU or Oakland needs to win the tournament. And at least 4 upsets need to happen (accounting for there being six 16 seeds with play-in games). HL fans should be rooting against Vermont, Wagner and Norfolk St in their respective tournaments, as well as 3rd place (or lower) teams from the A-Sun, Big Sky, MAAC, Patriot and Summit. Long-shot upsets from the Big South, Big West, CAA and MAC wouldn’t hurt either. If there are a total of 8 upsets (with the winners being rated below Oakland/CSU) then a 14 seed is possible, but the best realistic opportunity is avoiding a play-in game, with moving up to a 15 a secondary opportunity. Minor flaw here, I think we need to look at who the current AQ is not the top NET team. As of right now 199 UNC Wilmington are the AQ in CAA, while Hofstra, Towson or Drexel likely are better over a tournament period, that one actually we don't want an upset I guess. I'm not positive but the 150-180 range seems like it can change on a whim. Norfolk St dropped 22 spots after losing yesterday
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Post by gbanks on Feb 22, 2022 15:17:20 GMT -5
Welcome to the site "faninsouthbend".
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Feb 22, 2022 16:17:35 GMT -5
I know the Horizon has been projected as a 16 seed so I did some analysis. I looked at the highest rated team in each mid-major conference according to the NET ratings. Oakland is rated 144 and CSU is rated 165. Wright State is next at 217, so this will focus on Oakland and CSU as “the top of the HL”. Only two conferences have their highest rated team rated below CSU: the SWAC (Southern, 192) and the Southland (Nicholls St, 201). This is why we’re seeing the HL champ projected as a 16 seed. However, there is room for improvement if there are upsets in other conference tournaments. Conferences where the 2nd place team is rated below the top of the Horizon League: America East: Vermont (65) is running away with the America East conference, but all other teams are rated 235+. Northeast: 1st place Wagner is rated 115 and all others are 230+ MEAC: 1st place Norfolk St is rated 157 and all others are 227+. Conferences where the 3rd place team is rated below the top of the Horizon League: A-Sun: Jacksonville (179) is in 3rd but only a half game behind Liberty (112) and Jacksonville State (141). Big Sky: 3rd place Southern Utah (188) is only 2 games off the pace (and 2nd place Weber St is just ahead of CSU at 164). MAAC: 3rd place St. Peter’s (174) has played competitively in two games with 1st place Iona. Patriot: 3rd place Boston U (193) actually has the best overall record in the Patriot. Summit: SD State is 16-0 in the Summit but 3rd place ND State (182) is 20-9, 12-5. Other: Big South: 4th place rated below Oak/CSU Big West: 5th place rated below Oak/CSU CAA: 5th place rated below Oak/CSU MAC: 5th place rated below Oak/CSU Summary: in order for the HL to avoid a 16-seed, it’s likely that either CSU or Oakland needs to win the tournament. And at least 4 upsets need to happen (accounting for there being six 16 seeds with play-in games). HL fans should be rooting against Vermont, Wagner and Norfolk St in their respective tournaments, as well as 3rd place (or lower) teams from the A-Sun, Big Sky, MAAC, Patriot and Summit. Long-shot upsets from the Big South, Big West, CAA and MAC wouldn’t hurt either. If there are a total of 8 upsets (with the winners being rated below Oakland/CSU) then a 14 seed is possible, but the best realistic opportunity is avoiding a play-in game, with moving up to a 15 a secondary opportunity. Minor flaw here, I think we need to look at who the current AQ is not the top NET team. As of right now 199 UNC Wilmington are the AQ in CAA, while Hofstra, Towson or Drexel likely are better over a tournament period, that one actually we don't want an upset I guess. I'm not positive but the 150-180 range seems like it can change on a whim. Norfolk St dropped 22 spots after losing yesterday Good catch. You’re right. I purposefully left that out just for clarity. I believe all of the other conferences I highlighted are being led by the team with the best NET ranking.
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